[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices showed a slow decline on May 15, while container shipping bookings between China and the US surged by 277%

SMM Nickel News on May 15:

Macro News:

(1) According to the People's Bank of China, preliminary statistics showed that the outstanding social financing stock reached 424.0 trillion yuan at the end of April 2025, up 8.7% YoY. The balance of broad money (M2) was 325.17 trillion yuan at the end of April, up 8% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 109.14 trillion yuan, up 1.5% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.14 trillion yuan, up 12% YoY.

(2) As China and the US implemented a series of tariff adjustment measures, US importers significantly increased their import orders from China this week. Data from multiple shipping companies and industry trackers showed that China's freight volume to the US has rebounded notably. On Wednesday, Eastern Time, Vizion, a container tracking data software provider, stated that after China and the US reached a trade "truce," the average booking volume for container shipments from China to the US surged 277% to 21,530 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), compared to the seven-day average of 5,709 TEUs as of last Monday (May 5).

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price was 125,100-127,550 yuan/mt, with an average price of 126,325 yuan/mt, up 250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for spot premiums of Jinchuan No.1 nickel was 2,000-2,200 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,100 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for premiums and discounts of Russian nickel was 0-300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 150 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2506) saw a slight increase in price during last night's session before gradually declining. The daytime session continued the weakening trend, with the price decline accelerating during the morning close. As of 11:30, the closing price was 124,450 yuan/mt, up 0.04%.

Consensus was reached on tariff issues during the China-US economic and trade talks, easing trade tensions. Currently, nickel ore prices remain high, with tight supply in mining areas still present, driving up costs across the nickel industry chain. However, under the supply surplus situation, cost transmission is hindered, and nickel prices may remain in the doldrums, with a support level at 122,000 yuan/mt and a resistance level at 128,000 yuan/mt. Subsequent attention should be paid to policy adjustments in Indonesia and changes in nickel ore supply after the end of the rainy season in the Philippines.